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Table 5 Simulated per-grower’s accounting outcomes and corresponding tax revenue

From: The supply-side effects of cannabis legalization

Variable

Scenario 1: Base model

Scenario 2: Per ounce taxationa

Scenario 3: Per ounce taxation +  10% increased output price

Scenario 4: Per ounce taxation +  10% decreased output price

Scenario 5-1: Per ounce taxation +10% decreased output price +5% decreased input price

Scenario 5-2: Per ounce taxation +10% decreased output price +10% decreased input price

Profit (USD)

145252.58

105405.49

(− 27%)

168418.67

(16%)

62655.52

(− 57%)

75563.62

(− 48%)

92058.88

(− 37%)

Output level (oz)

5690.23

4129.23

(− 27%)

5597.96

(− 2%)

2727.24

(− 52%)

3289.09

(− 42%)

4007.09

(− 30%)

Total variable cost (USD)

530462.41

384940.84

(− 27%)

615064.98

(16%)

228817.97

(− 57%)

275958.33

(− 48%)

336199.05

(− 37%)

Tax revenue (USD)

39847.09

57880.32

(45%)

26317.84

(− 34%)

31739.76

(− 20%)

38668.44

(− 3%)

  1. Numbers in parenthesis indicate the percentage change from scenario 1 (for the tax revenue part, the percentage change from scenario 2)
  2. a9.65 US dollars per ounce